A snapshot of Toronto’s economy & construction sector as we wrap up 2019

In this blog post, Tembo will give its readers an overview of the state of Toronto’s economy and its major financial indicators. In this way, Tembo hopes to reveal the overall good shape, flexibility, and versatility of Toronto’s economic state. All in all, Toronto’s economic indicators are very positive.

The Macro-Economy

  • Unemployment is at 6.9%, slightly higher than the national figure but still a decent number, remember that population is rising by 70,000, placing pressure on job creation.
  • Mean hourly wages in Toronto meet provincial and national averages, at $29.
  • GDP is growing by roughly 2%, at the rate of inflation, it’s projected to stay at this amount for the next several years. The economy had a strong growth spurt from 2014-2017
  • Toronto’s economy boomed from 1998-2001, averaging rates of well over 5% in those years
  • There are 1,572.4 million jobs are in Toronto, contributing to an office vacancy rate of 4.1%, there have been only 10 business bankruptcies in our City this year
  • The industrial vacancy rate is 1.5%, down from 5.5% in late 2013
  • Consumer prices rose by 1.7% this year
  • Retail sales in Toronto will exceed $32 billion for 2019, most of which was cars and car parts

Buildings under construction

  • There are 246 mid and high-rise buildings under construction in Toronto as of October 2019, up from 202 in October of 2018
  • The pace of building continues to rise, Toronto is competing with New York City for the title of most mid to high rise construction in North America
  • 2022 will be a giant year for construction in our City as there are a huge number of supertall buildings that will be completed in that year
  • These will include the 83 floor The One building at Yonge-Bloor, YSL Residences at 85 floors just down the street, and Sugar Wharf Tower D on Queens Quay which will reach 70 floors
  • This article from the Financial Post has lots of information and an interactive video of some of the supertall structures that are being built right now: https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/property-post/vertical-city-80-new-skyscrapers-planned-in-toronto-as-demand-climbs

Housing

  • Disappointingly, housing starts in Q3 2019 were 9% lower than in Q3 2018 but are up 11.5% from Q2 2019
  • There were roughly 5,000 housing starts in Q3 2019, most of which were apartments and condos
  • The average house price in our City is $925K

Most analysts and experts consider Toronto’s economy to continue

to remain healthy and reasonably stable in the coming years. Analysts believe the biggest threats are high debt levels, a rapid rise in interest rates, or a severe recession from abroad.

Ontario’s Housing Revamp Bill 108

The Ford PC government has unveiled a major piece of omnibus legislation designed to promote the construction of new housing and to reform planning in Ontario.

The bill is being passed swiftly by the government, as is the case with most legislation the PCs have introduced. The bill has received a fair bit of media attention and both praise and criticism. One of the key elements of the bill is that it eliminates the two stage appeal process of broad planning reform legislation brought in by the previous Liberal government – returning to a single hearing system. Marking a return with the bill is some of the old powers of the Ontario Municipal Board; namely the return to a single hearing. 

108 also reforms the section 37 system. Section 37 received a considerable amount of attention under former Toronto Mayor Rob Ford. The system allows municipalities to arrange special contributions and payments from developers in exchange for variances and changes to zoning and planning rules. The late Mayor Ford believed the system allowed City Councillors to amass pork barrel spending accounts to spend on parks and other amenities while accommodating powerful and wealthy developers and saw it as a corrupt and inefficient system. Most Section 37 money is accrued in the development heavy downtown core and benefits largely left-wing Councillors and politicians. 108 replaces certain provisions of Section 37 with a new community benefits charge and allows the province to exempt certain types of development from the charge. This reform will intensify provincial activity and interest in municipal and local development matters.

Bill 108 also cuts down on timelines for municipal processing of applications from 180 days to 120 days. It also limits witness activity in an appeal and restricts third party appeals to sub division planning and proposals. All of these changes will speed up development, benefit developers, and restrict the capacity of individuals to challenge construction. These are but a few of the changes Bill 108 makes to the system. The province has also expressed its desire to work with a wide variety of stakeholders and partners to get more housing to market. 

Major Toronto Condo Projects For 2018

Toronto’s condo boom continues unabated, the number of construction projects and the lineup of cranes over the skyline continues to grow and impress. In this blog post, Tembo will outline some of the key condo projects that are notable this year.

aqualuna toronto condo

Aqualuna at Bayside is the fourth and last market condominium development proposed for Toronto’s nascent Bayside neighbourhood. The building with peaks of 16 and 15 storeys is designed by Denmark’s 3XN architects for Tridel and Hines.

 

Danish architects 3XN, famous internationally with unconventional and unique designs, have designed interesting twin tower condos on the waterfront called Aqualuna. Additionally, construction of the One tower, Mizrahi’s signature condo megatower at the intersection of Yonge and Bloor, is well underway. This building will have 9 floors of retail space, and several massive luxury condo suites.

 

Mirvish + Gehry project

Mirvish+Gehry is a planned two-tower mixed-use building complex in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Consisting of two towers, 92 and 82 floors respectively, when completed it will be among the tallest skyscrapers in Toronto and the tallest skyscrapers in Canada.

The Mirvish + Gehry project, an eagerly anticipated collection of massive condos downtown just east of the entertainment district is also underway, with pre-construction planning changes and revisions continuing. Sugar Wharf by Menkes is an assortment of many massive condo projects at Queens Quay East continues, with work ongoing. Massive condo projects are also underway in Peel region (Mississauga and Brampton).
 
Toronto is 16th in the world by the number of towers completed over the height of 150 meters. By North American construction standards, Toronto leads its continental competitors in the number of projects that have been planned. With low rates, a strong economy, and huge demand, Toronto will continue to see projects planned, completed, and underway.

Another Rate Hike Is Coming

July’s inflation figures are up to 3%, the biggest monthly increase in over 7 years as prices for gasoline and and air travel increased sharply.

Interest Hike Hike Coming

Bank of Canada Could Increase Rates By Another 0.25%

Tembo has consistently reminded its readers and clients that the Bank of Canada is very mindful of inflation and watches it carefully. The Bank is internationally renowned for keeping inflation in and around its benchmark target of 2%. This sudden spike in inflation is likely to increase pressure on the Bank to raise its rate by another quarter percentage point. 
 
This recent increase in inflation comes at a time when the economy has been growing strongly and the Bank has continued its policy of increasing rates in tandem with Central Banks around the world. Canada’s mortgage banking rates are still very low by historical standards, and will remain low even as they respond to likely rate hikes by the Bank of Canada. On a separate note, real estate figures in Montreal and Toronto are improving and warming up. 

New Construction Heating Up

In addition, the latest CMHC figures show that construction starts (both condo and houses) are increasing across the country, from small municipalities to the City of Toronto. On a final general update on real estate, polling shows that the biggest political issue for Millennials is the affordability of housing, given the astronomically high average prices for real estate in the country – even after recent cooling measures.