After the Rate Hikes

The Government of Canada is carefully examining the effects of two rapid Bank of Canada rate hikes on the economy, the real estate market, and consumers. The immediate impact of the hikes saw prime mortgage rates increase across the entire spectrum in Canada, with variable rate mortgage holders affected the most. The rate hikes will likely slow down economic momentum, cool the housing market, and encourage consumers to keep on eye on their borrowing and spending habits – which were the intentions of the rapid hikes to begin with.

The economic data to be released in the next few weeks will likely influence the Bank’s decision on rates in October. There is a strong expectation that the Bank will likely increase rates again, as its position has become very hawkish. If the economic and real estate data is exceedingly poor and falls flat of baseline expectations, the Bank is likely to send warmer signals to the market that it will take its time on rates and raise them in a more gradual way over the medium to long term.

Governments around the world are very sensitive to interest rates. Increases that are too fast and too significant can significantly dampen economic growth and can spawn considerable resentment and unpopularity amongst voters. One of the key indicators of a government losing an election is the trajectory of interest in the run up stages. Federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau did not appear to voice his intention or opinion to act further on cooling the housing market. Interest rates in Canada are set by the Bank of Canada, which is fully independent of the government and which has complete and total purview over monetary policy.