Despite the impact of higher rates on the real estate and construction sectors, Ontario’s diversified and resilient economy still managed to create 22,000 new jobs in July. The national economy overall lost a few thousand jobs, with negative trends in overall employment, unemployment among the youth, women, and immigrants, and a decline in private sector hiring. Manitoba and Nova Scotia both lost roughly 5,000 jobs. Government hiring, particularly at the federal level post-pandemic, has helped balance out the weakening pace of private sector employment growth. And yet again, despite all these trends, Ontario managed to maintain its record of generally leading the nation in job growth. This speaks to the stability of our diversified economy, our attractiveness to newcomers, and our strong growth fundamentals. This long-term resilience is exactly why the Ontario real estate market has been bullish for so long, because we have a strong economy and because we’re consistently a job creation engine. We want our readers and clients to always keep this in mind.
A very healthy statistic underpinning the good Ontario news was that 70,000 full-time jobs were created, while 48,000 part-time jobs were lost. The unemployment rate fell by 0.3% to 6.7% – almost on par with the national unemployment rate of 6.4%. Ontario’s gains were mostly in services, with over 14,000 jobs created in transportation and warehousing, the science and tech sectors enjoyed solid growth, and there was also a significant increase in government jobs (over 15,000). The cities of Ottawa, Belleville, St. Catharines, and Windsor saw employment growth, with 10,000 new jobs created in Toronto alone – a testament to dynamism of Ontario’s largest city. 160,000 new jobs have been created in Ontario since the start of 2024.
Since 2010, Ontario’s total employment has increased by over 21 percent, outpacing the rest of Canada (ROC), which grew by approximately 18 percent. The second chart highlights that Ontario consistently maintains a higher private sector employment share than the ROC, underscoring Ontario’s ongoing significance as a hub for Canadian manufacturing and finance, particularly in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA). Additionally, since 2010, this share has risen from just under 66 percent to 67 percent, with growth persisting even after the post-pandemic employment recovery. Meanwhile, the rest of the country has remained relatively stagnant, with its private sector employment share unchanged since 2014. Lastly, Ontario’s self-employment share remained fairly steady between 2010 and 2020, averaging slightly above 15 percent. So Ontario is not only resilient, diversified, and dynamic, but over time, it trends significantly better than the rest of Canada in most long-term employment trends.
Ontario experienced a significant economic, real estate, and stock market boom in the 1980s, driven by robust growth, especially in manufacturing and finance. However, this boom eventually led to an economic downturn in the early 1990s, marked by a recession and a sharp correction in the housing market. This was caused by Bank of Canada interest rate increases, just like the cooling period we’re in now. But we recovered! Despite this setback, Ontario’s economy gradually recovered through the latter half of the 1990s, bolstered by a resurgence in manufacturing and an expanding service sector. Real estate boomed from the late 1990s through to 2020, with a brief ‘pause’ in 2007-2009. The province faced another major challenge with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which disrupted industries across the board. Yet, Ontario once again demonstrated resilience, rebounding as public health measures eased and economic activities resumed, continuing its tradition of recovery after periods of adversity. Our real estate market soared to heights we didn’t think were possible post-COVID, and we’re now going through an adjustment. No matter the challenge, Ontario’s economy and real estate market perseveres, never forget that.