Predictions that Toronto’s housing market would roar back to life in 2025 have so far fallen flat, with sales activity continuing to underwhelm while new listings flood the market. The long-awaited rebound after a sluggish 2024 has yet to materialize in the form of higher prices. Instead of a renewed frenzy of buyers eager to jump back in, the market has been met with a surge of available inventory and subdued demand, creating conditions that are starting to push prices of some categories of housing downward in some markets. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), nearly 20,000 homes were up for sale across the GTA in January, reflecting a staggering 48.6 percent increase in new listings and a 70.2 percent rise in active listings compared to the same period last year.

RBC economists recently published a special housing report that sheds light on how Toronto compares to other major Canadian markets. Their analysis highlights that Toronto experienced the third-largest year-over-year drop in home sales out of six major markets studied, trailing only Fraser Valley (-12.8 percent) and Calgary (-12 percent). At the same time, Toronto saw the most dramatic increase in new listings, rising 48.6 percent, surpassing even Vancouver’s 46.9 percent increase. While sales in Vancouver at least showed some improvement (rising 8.8 percent), Toronto’s market remains largely stagnant. The report notes that, although seasonally adjusted data shows a modest 10 percent month-over-month increase in sales between December 2024 and January 2025, the bigger takeaway is the sheer volume of new listings—a 26 percent surge over the same period.

It appears that many sellers are eager to offload their properties before the spring market, perhaps in anticipation of stronger buyer activity. “Many sellers may be jostling for position ahead of the spring season in anticipation of a strong rebound in demand,” the RBC report states. “Buyers have a lot more choices before them.” However, the abundance of available properties is placing downward pressure on prices, creating an unexpected market dynamic. Notably, the number of active listings has reached its highest level since 2009, a stark contrast to the housing shortages that once fueled bidding wars and rapid price appreciation. The impact on pricing is already evident. The MLS Home Price Index remained unchanged from December and showed only a meager 0.5 percent increase year-over-year. Condo prices have been hit particularly hard, falling 3.4 percent compared to last year, as the sheer volume of available units continues to dilute demand. This influx of inventory—combined with economic uncertainty and shifting buyer behavior—is reshaping Toronto’s real estate landscape in ways that many did not anticipate.

 One of the more striking insights from the Ontario Land Registry data is how the market trends within Toronto diverge from the broader provincial trends. For example, condos account for just 25 percent of land transfers across Ontario but make up a staggering 60 percent of transactions in Toronto. This suggests that while detached homes and low-rise properties continue to dominate the rest of the province, Toronto remains heavily reliant on the condo market—a sector that is currently grappling with an oversupply problem. While condo transactions across Ontario have generally followed similar patterns to other property types, Toronto has seen a unique shift. The Ontario Land Registry registers these units as “new” transactions only when they become available for occupancy, which can skew the numbers. This massive influx of inventory—coupled with declining resale activity—helps explain why resale condo sales reached their lowest levels in 2024.

Taken together, these findings paint a picture of a Toronto real estate market that remains deeply uncertain. The sheer volume of new listings suggests that sellers may be bracing for tougher conditions, while buyers are taking their time, reluctant to jump in amid economic uncertainty and expectations of further price declines. The reality is that the market has yet to absorb the full impact of rising inventory levels, and with more condo projects set to be completed in the coming months, supply-side pressure is unlikely to ease anytime soon. While many analysts had hoped that falling interest rates would help reignite buyer enthusiasm, the numbers suggest that affordability concerns, economic uncertainty, and changing market dynamics continue to weigh heavily on sentiment. For now, Toronto’s housing market remains in a state of flux, with sellers navigating a much more competitive landscape and buyers enjoying more options than they have in years. Whether the market finds its footing in the spring remains to be seen, but for now, we have yet to see a comprehensive rebound to market conditions more prevalent in preceding years.